Lately, I’ve been thinking about the Monty Hall Problem and how it relates to the way we stubbornly hold on to beliefs that aren’t true and may even be self-destructive. Briefly, the Monty Hall Problem is a statistical puzzle that refers to the game show host who was for many years synonymous with Let’s Make a Deal. Here’s the puzzle (go to Better Explained for a full statistical breakdown):

There are 3 doors, behind which are two goats and a car.
You pick a door (call it door A). You’re hoping for the car of course.
Monty Hall, the game show host, examines the other doors (B & C) and opens one with a goat. (If both doors have goats, he picks randomly.)

Do you stick with door A (original guess) or switch to the unopened door? Does it matter? According to their statistical analysis, if you switch doors, you’ll win 2/3 of the time.

And yet, most of us struggle to understand how it’s not just a 50/50 chance. The reason it’s not is because once Monty chooses a door to reveal the goat, he’s given us additional information we didn’t have before. He’s told us that he didn’t choose door B. That info now weighs our choice more heavily toward B.

Yes, I know it takes some thinking about, but when you do, you realize that’s how we operate in the real world. We refuse to acknowledge important information when it’s given to us because it rattles how we are used to thinking. It makes us have to reconsider the conventional wisdom we have clung to. It makes us have to wonder if we’re wrong about one thing, what other fundamental beliefs might we be wrong about. It is better to to simply reject all new information and hold on to our comforting biases, whether they be about the 5-second rule of dropping food (there is no safe time) or about people’s gender, race, or religion.

Politics: The Three Stooges of Mar-a-Lago

Republican leaders denounce Trump's dinner with white nationalist Nick Fuentes (NPR)

Ye (formerly Kanye West) embraces President Donald Trump in the White House's Oval Office in 2018. (Photo by Ron Sachs/Consolidated News Pictures/Getty Images)

Summary: “House and Senate Republicans are speaking out against former President Donald Trump's dinner last week with Ye, the rapper formerly known as Kanye West, and white nationalist and Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes.

“‘There is no room in the Republican Party for antisemitism or white supremacy,’ Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Tuesday. ‘And anyone meeting with people advocating that point of view, in my judgment, are highly unlikely to ever be elected president of the United States.’

“Earlier in the day, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy denounced Fuentes, who is labeled as a white supremacist pundit and organizer by the Anti-Defamation League, in language similar to McConnell's, though he stopped short of condemning the former president.”

My Take: The big story here isn’t this misguided dinner of three of the least intelligent and most divisive people in the country. It’s that the meeting created such a massive media hullabaloo, clogging the news cycle like a clump of greasy hair in the drain. After all, this wasn’t exactly the Yalta Conference of Churchill, FDR, and Stalin. More like the Yahoo Conference (Yahoos in Jonathan Swift’s Gulliver’s Travels were “a brute in human form”) featuring Spray-Tan Stalin, Delusional Stalin, and Mini-Stalin.

Nick Fuentes, 24, is a Holocaust denier, 2020 election denier, fanboy of Mussolini and Putin, and aligned with neo-Nazis. Ye (formerly Kanye West) has announced his candidacy for the presidency in the 2024 election and reportedly joked with Trump at the dinner that the former president could be his running mate.

And then the drama really hit the fan: Ye’s political advisor (and recent intern for Marjorie Taylor Greene) Milo Yiannopoulos claimed that bringing Fuentes to the dinner was his way to publicly humiliate Trump because he had grown disillusioned with him. Fuentes, now also a member of Ye’s campaign, reputed that claim: “My intention was not to hurt Trump by attending the dinner, that is fake news. I love Donald Trump.” Trump’s alleged response was, “He tried to fuck me. He’s crazy. He can’t beat me.” Moe, Larry, and Curly would probably look at this dinner, shake their heads and say, “Too over the top.”

A frightening fact: Following his recent anti-semitic rants, Ye’s social media followers increased to over 30 million people. If you want to do something practical to send a message about your principles, unfollow Ye. Let him scream his madness into the void.

Yet, for all their ridiculousness, it would be a mistake to dismiss these publicity-seeking missiles as nutty outliers because social media can instantly make heroes and martyrs of the dumbest, most despicable people. Americans used to strive to improve themselves—economically, sure, but also intellectually. We wanted to be smarter, better informed. We believed our reach should exceed our grasp. Now, many are content to find others who share the same uninformed opinions because they are only a computer click away. Requires no reading, no thinking. Just the purchase of a slogan-emblazoned hat or t-shirt that announces to the world: “I’ve just given up on myself.”

But the rest of us can’t give up on ourselves—or the country—by allowing these empty vessels desperate for a spotlight to have any influence beyond their sad minions in need of a Stalin.

In Related News: “Kanye West Slammed for Praising Hitler in Horrific Antisemitic Interview: ‘Not Only Is He a Nazi,’ But So Is ‘Everyone Who Supports Him’”

According to Variety, “Kanye West went on a horrific antisemitic tirade during an appearance on Alex Jones’ ‘Infowars’ talk show in which the controversial rapper praised Hitler…West told Jones that Hitler, like every human being, brought value to the world. He also said he sees good things about the Nazi founder. Later in the interview, West made antisemitic jokes about former Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.”

My Take: So far, the first two announced candidates for president of this country are Trump and West. If you think about it too much, you’ll start to cramp up. It’s not that they have a chance, but that they disrespect the country and democratic process so much that they believe the country exists only to feed their pampered egos.

Social Media: Truthiness Is Making a Comeback

Twitter ends its ban on covid misinformation (The Washington Post)

Twitter owner Elon Musk ponders what his responsibility is to his users. (Muhammed Selim Korkutata / Anadolu Agency)

Summary: “Twitter will no longer enforce its policy against coronavirus misinformation, worrying experts who say the move could have serious consequences in the midst of a still-deadly pandemic…Doctors and public health officials say Musk’s decision is a ‘huge step backwards’ and will lead to more deaths.”

My Take: Twitter has over 300 million active daily users, with 94% expressing interest in current events. Twitter is the main source of news for most users. As a business, Twitter has no obligation to protect the lives of its customers. But as a member of the community, when your business practices can be directly responsible for the unnecessary deaths of other human beings, you should do something to stop it.

If someone comes into your children’s school to sell drugs, you want the school to stop them. When someone can spread misinformation, especially in order to sell useless remedies, they too should be stopped.

“Health misinformation is a serious threat to public health,” U.S. Surgeon General Vivek H. Murthy wrote in a 2021 advisory report to technology platforms. “It can cause confusion, sow mistrust, harm people’s health, and undermine public health efforts. Limiting the spread of health misinformation is a moral and civic imperative that will require a whole-of-society effort.”

Vaccination and health care hesitancy is up again just as RSV, flu, and COVID are ravaging our communities and overwhelming our hospitals (“Children’s hospitals call on Biden to declare emergency in response to ‘unprecedented’ RSV surge”). Social media is not a playground for children to play whatever dangerous games they want regardless of how many get injured. It’s a form of mass communication that, unchecked by those in a position of responsibility, can undermine democracy—and cause the illness and deaths of innocent people.

Usually, this is where I ask you to subscribe so we can keep the newsletter going. But this time I’m also asking you to give a gift subscription to someone you love (or just like). They’ll appreciate the fact that you respect their intellect enough to give them this instead of socks with kittens.

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Politics: This Shouldn’t Have Been Necessary

Same-Sex Marriage Bill Passes Senate After Bipartisan Breakthrough (The New York Times)

U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) pats Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) during a news conference after the Senate passed the Respect for Marriage Act. Also attending the news conference were Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) (L) and Susan Collins (R-ME). (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Summary: In a final vote of 61-36, with 12 Republicans joining all the Democrats, the U.S. Senate passed the Respect for Marriage Act to protect same-sex and interracial marriage. The House of Representatives must now approve the bill after which it will be sent to President Biden for his signature. The legislation does not require all states to legalize same-sex marriage, but does require individual states to recognize another state’s legal marriage.

President Biden released a statement saying that the vote reaffirmed “a fundamental truth: Love is love, and Americans should have the right to marry the person they love.”

FYI: According to recently released Census Bureau data, the number of same-sex households surpassed one million for the first time ever, an increase of 120% from 2008 to 2021.

My Take: Yes, I’m relieved and delighted that the bill passed and will probably soon become the law. But I’m also dismayed that the current U.S. Supreme Court, which seems intent on imposing its own form of shiria law based on their religious convictions rather than the principles of the U.S. Constitution, has made this necessary. Justice Clarence Thomas, the least capable of the nine justices, has declared his intention to revisit laws protecting same-sex marriage and the availability of birth control. As usual with this Court, they will undoubtedly find some obscure document to justify their imposition of their religion on everyone else. Perhaps the to-do list of a distant judge: Drink Mead. Drink Grog. Dismantle women’s rights.

Lifetime appointments for U.S. Supreme Court Justices? I think not.

Kareem’s Video Break

Here’s a touching lesson for all of us on how to do unto others.

Sports: Still? Seriously!

Girls Soccer: Where girls compete but men rule (The Washington Post)

Who’s looking out for them? Holy Angels High School soccer, November 2022, by Aaron Lavinsky, Star Tribune

MINNEAPOLIS, MN. - NOVEMBER 2022: Academy of Holy Angels High School players, including Madden Smith (6), celebrate their shootout victory against Mahtomedi High School during the girls' Class 2A soccer state championship game Friday, Nov. 4, 2022 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minn.. (Photo by Aaron Lavinsky/Star Tribune via Getty Images)

Summary: “[F]or female coaches, elite youth soccer remains male-dominated, with a culture that often veers into sexism, discrimination and even harassment, according to interviews with two dozen current and former coaches at clubs that play in the Elites Club National League, the pinnacle of girls’ soccer in the United States…Every year, ECNL soccer trains thousands of girls from coast to coast, building the pipeline to college, professional and U.S. national teams.

“But men control ECNL soccer at nearly every level, from executives to club owners to boards and oversight organizations, according to interviews and a review by The Post of coaching rosters and public filings from across the 129 girls’ clubs in the league. Nearly 90 percent of coaching directors at ECNL clubs are men, The Post found. At many of the country’s most successful clubs, there is not a single woman in coaching leadership.”

My Take: The above summary does not do justice to just how heinous the situation is. When you read the individual stories of how the few women allowed to coach are marginalized and humiliated by men, you want to scrap the whole program and start over.

Sports programs for youth are not simply about perfecting performance in that sport. They are also about building character and a lesson that hard work and discipline are rewarded on the field and off. However, the ECNL is sending the opposite message. A girl or woman player can become excellent but there is no place for her as a coach. Worse, they have to witness the mistreatment of the few women coaches that are allowed in. The lesson is that merit is meaningless, it’s still just an Old Boys Club.

This is the same twisted discrimination that keeps qualified Black coaches from advancing in the NFL (“How the NFL Blocks Black Coaches”).

In Related News: “Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has never hired a Black head coach. We asked him why.” (The Washington Post)

Summary: Recently, a photograph from 1957 has been all over the news. It shows current Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones as a high school sophomore among a crowd of Whites, mostly teenagers, trying to block the path of six Black students trying to desegregate the school. He claims that he was there just to observe.

Is there a connection from his upbringing to his hiring of Black coaches? “His record in key appointments has been deficient. In his 33 years as owner, Jones has had eight head coaches, all White. During that time, just two of the team’s offensive or defensive coordinators, the steppingstones to head coaching positions, have been Black, including none since 2008.”

My Take: The Dallas Cowboys are the most popular and financially successful sports franchise in America. So, what billionaire Jones and the Cowboys do matters in terms of public perception. And right now, the perception is that, because they have never hired a Black head coach, maybe Blacks aren’t competent enough for that position. Yes, there are Black head coaches, but only 3 out of 32 (9%), despite the fact that 71% of the players are People of Color.

Sports is in the entertainment business. But its influence over our youth and our popular culture is enormous. Dr. King said that “the arc of the moral universe is long but it bends toward justice.” Sports has the power to bend that arc a little faster. The math is disturbing: the Cowboys are the most popular team in the NFL, yet they have a horrendous record employing Black coaches. That equation continues only because the fans let it. They have the power to end it—if they wanted.

What do girls soccer and the NFL have in common? They both practice active discrimination in hiring coaches. They both corrupt the ideals of sports in America.

Sports: A Punishment Too Far

High School Football Star Loses Scholarship After Using N-Word (The Daily Beast)

Summary: “The University of Florida has yanked a sports scholarship from a star high school football recruit after the athlete was caught using racist language in a video that went viral online.

“According to Sports Illustrated, the Division I school pulled the 2023 scholarship for quarterback Marcus Stokes—a top recruit and senior at Nease High School in Ponte Vedra, Florida—on Sunday for the offensive language.

“‘Welcome back, n----,’” Stokes is heard saying in a video as he sings along to music while riding in a car.”

Stokes, who is White, apologized and said he accepts the consequences.

My Take: Based on the information we have, the University of Florida made a big mistake. Yes, Stokes should not have posted a video of himself saying the n-word. That showed insensitivity and lack of awareness of social protocols. But there was no demonstration of malice, no hatred—just singing along to a rap song. Plus, he’s in high school and therefore more likely to make this kind of unintentional error. Unless he has a history of racism, this was just an unfortunate misstep.

He has undoubtedly learned from this mistake, but the University of Florida should also learn from their hasty and over-the-top punishment. I applaud their intention, but urge them to restore the scholarship offer.

Music: Soulful Jazz Singing

Carmen Lundy: Fade to Black

Summary (from her website): “Fade To Black is Carmen Lundy’s 16th album and one of her most personal to date. Grammy® Nominated for her previous album Modern Ancestors, these 11 original songs, written and arranged by Carmen Lundy, were conceived during the challenging months of the pandemic and reflect this time of great loss, sorrow, healing, and hope for a brighter, more inclusive future for us all. Tackling the difficult social issues of our time while also musing on the joys of love and relationships, this stunning set of songs takes us on an emotional journey that culminates in the extraordinary hymn-like ballad titled ‘Rest In Peace.’

“Carmen Lundy explains, ‘I approached the writing of this work from being in this moment in time – not necessarily looking back, but observant of the times we live in NOW. Traditional Jazz composition involves understanding its evolution and the spirit of improvisation. In this complete oeuvre, I wanted to explore different approaches to harmonic progressions, extended forms, and subtle rhythmic concepts while providing plenty of space for the lyrics and melodies to sing and tell stories without necessarily feeling the need to represent preconceived ideas about vocal jazz, harmonies and rhythms.’”

My Take: This album is like floating on a river that will be calm for a while, then suddenly sweep you around a bend into swift rapisd that pumps the blood, then drops you into still waters and a reflective state. “Rest in Peace” is meditative, engaging and seeps into the brain like a balmy breeze.

Hope you enjoyed today’s wild ride. I’m sure you must have friends or family who would also like to join our community. Why not give them a gift subscription so you can have something more to discuss?

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Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Trump and Kanye Dine on Their Own Souls…