Trump's Alcatraz Delusion & GOP Fills Panel Investigating Antisemitism with Bigots
May 9, 2025
What I’m Discussing Today:
Kareem’s Daily Quote: When we beat the odds in life, it isn’t a metaphysical commentary on our value.
Trump says he will reopen Alcatraz prison: He won’t, of course. But his limp reasoning and suspicious timing should scare us all.
Jewish faculty decry Republican panel members ahead of antisemitism hearing: Antisemitism is the default bias of the smugly irrational. Some of the GOP members of this panel investigating antisemitism are clearly bigots.
Kareem’s Kvetching Korner: People Miss the Point about Trump’s Pope Picture: It’s not about how offensive he is, it’s about the fact that he can’t recognize why it’s offensive—or admit that many Catholics don’t like it.
What I’m Watching at the Movies: The Accountant 2 and Thunderbolts* are both highly entertaining movies that are funny and suspenseful. You’ll have a good time watching them.
Kareem’s Video Break: This horse made my day. I may have to watch this every day for the next four years.
What I’m Following: Kathy Griffin’s Substack: This is a new feature in which I mention social media sites that I follow.
Kareem’s Sports Moments: One of the most amazing catches I have ever seen—in any sport.
Donald O'Connor Sings and Dances to “Make 'Em Laugh”: I’ve watched this scene from Singin’ in the Rain for most of my life. It still makes me laugh.
Kareem’s Daily Quote
“Doctors gave me a one percent chance to live.”
British soldier after being caught in an IED explosion in Afghanistan
I was watching an interview with the above-mentioned British soldier, and when he uttered that line, it immediately reminded me of the numerous times I’ve seen people interviewed or heard people I know say a variation of that line: “The doctors said I’d never walk again, yet I won an Olympic gold medal in the decathlon.” Or, “The doctors said grandpa would never come out of the coma, but here he is paddle boarding every day.”
I am skeptical. It’s more likely that a single doctor (though when retold, people tend to multiply the number to imply a cohort of doctors) was giving the patient or family a complete scenario of possibilities: “If we don’t do this procedure, there’s a strong possibility your legs will (insert medical jargon) and you may never walk again. However, we have several avenues of treatment to explore.” People who tell the story of surviving overwhelming odds aren’t lying, they are recounting the story the way they heard it. But why do so many people hear it in such movie-ready distortion?
Overcoming great odds is the basis for our favorite movies, from Rudy to Rocky to all the Marvel movies. When we do it in real life, we become the hero in our own story. It’s proof that we are somehow special, selected by the gods for greatness. We are supernaturally enhanced to rise above the relentlessness of Nature.
The reason the recounting of the story generally mentions doctors rather than a single doctor is that the teller is no longer referring to a doctor who may have made a mistake in the diagnosis, but to experts in general. To Science as a faulty pursuit that doesn’t take into account the magic of supernatural forces. We want to believe in miracles, which are events that occur against the odds. Ironically, the odds are that a certain number of “miracles” will occur. The difference is when we give them supernatural intent, meaning that the person was somehow chosen to win by an otherworldly being.
So many times I’ve heard people say things like, “Doctors told me to quit smoking or I’d die, yet here I am at 85 still enjoying a pack a day.” Let me interpret: What they said was that smoking increases your chances of dying younger. But even if you live longer, it will probably worsen your general health and make those years more uncomfortable. Though you may live to 87, without smoking, you might have lived to 97.
Undoubtedly, people will beat the odds, the same way they do in Las Vegas or with the lottery. Eventually, those odds catch up with us all. Sometimes experts get it wrong—they aren’t infallible, they’re just humans doing their best—but mostly they get it right. We should celebrate when they get it wrong in our favor, but not elevate our good fortune into a philosophy of our personal exceptionalism.
As Hamlet says, “There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.” I would hope so, but that doesn’t mean that the “more” is supernatural. If you beat the odds on occasion, be happy at your good fortune. But don’t turn it into a metaphysical philosophy about your worth to the universe. Remember, no one beats the odds forever.